فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی
پیاپی 135 (تابستان 1400)

This paper extends an information-based model for an order market with asymmetric information. The new assumption in this expanded model is that possibility of asymmetric influence of changes in inside and outside information. However, other models generally assume that changes in these two types of information have the same value, or focus only on changes in internal information. Therefore, in the new extended model, uninformed traders face informed internal and external traders. In the new equilibrium, when the effect of external information is larger than that of internal information for the stock, in the optimal case uninformed traders choose a lower bid price and a higher ask price as the equality effect of these two types of information, and in the opposite case they choose a higher bid price and a lower ask price.

In the real estate sector, price plays an important role and can lead to an optimal allocation of resources as long as there is no price bubble. Therefore, identifying the factors that lead to a price bubble in the real estate market should always be considered by economic policy makers. In this paper, an attempt was made to examine the impact of the central bank’s monetary policy through the bank credit channel and the government’s fiscal policy through the government’s public spending channel on the occurrence of housing price bubbles using agent-based models**[1]. The research results show that if monetary authorities apply simpler rules for measuring mortgage creditworthiness, this action can cause a significant increase in the housing price bubble and unsustainable economic growth. Enforcing more measured and soft rules that ensure that the amount of the mortgage paid covers an acceptable amount of the housing price will lead to sustainable economic growth. As for fiscal policy, fiscal deficit policy and the increase in public spending in the context of economic prosperity, along with the increase in GDP, will also significantly increase inflation. Given the central bank’s inflation target, this could lead to a price bubble in the real estate sector and trigger a recession. However, if the fiscal deficit policy is applied in times of recession, it can reduce the severity of the recession and housing price bubble and improve the situation.

The exchange rate and its volatility are one of the most important parameters affecting the Iranian economy and have caused a shaky situation in the country in recent years. This study examines the impact of exchange rate and its uncertainty on Iran's economic growth process along with the control variables of oil price growth, inflation and its uncertainty, and liquidity growth using seasonal data from 1991-2018 and applying linear VAR and multi-regime nonlinear MRS and MRS-GARCH models. The results indicate that different results are obtained depending on the type of regime and econometric model. All multi-regime models showed that Iran's growth trend had different regimes, alternating between low and high regimes and often being in a low growth regime. The exchange rate growth and its uncertainty had a significant negative impact on growth in both the linear and nonlinear models. Due to the chaotic evolution of the exchange rate, nonlinear models provide more realistic results according to Iran's economic situation. Control variables also have different effects on economic growth depending on the type of equation and econometric model. Policy makers are recommended to avoid applying cross-cutting measures to solve Iran's daily problems, which create an uncertain environment for economic agents, and to take measures to reduce the negative consequences of the exchange rate and its uncertainty by stabilizing the macroeconomy and unifying the exchange rate.

Advances in transportation, technological advances, and rapid improvements in information and communication technology have led to a more rapid globalization of the global economy. This increase in trade has led to a rapid exchange of information and services between countries that have a good understanding of the logistics sector and have laid the foundations for the development of logistics. In addition, the reduction of barriers to global trade and globalization resulting from a new perspective on global trade by the World Bank and other international organizations has increased the value of multilateral trade and increased the share of multinational corporations in the global economy, and has provided logistical support for the development of international activities. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the development of exports in the petrochemical industry of the Persian Gulf with an approach based on the logistics system. The statistical population consists of senior professionals, supervisors, managers and board members of petrochemical companies of Persian Gulf Holding operating in commercial units. 278 individuals were randomly selected as the sample. The instrument used to collect data is a questionnaire. The research hypotheses were tested using Smart.PLS software. The results show that export market, international marketing, export potentials, export challenges, market competition, organizational factors, macro factors, export sales, export logistics, export product characteristics have an impact on improving logistics performance and export development in the Persian Gulf petrochemical industry.

Measuring the share of exports and imports of each factor in exports and imports of goods and services according to Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem is important, and its measurement at the micro level and at the level of economic activities is doubly important to identify the trade patterns of countries. This study examine the validation of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem by examining the factor content of trade for six factors: Labor (unskilled, semi-skilled, and skilled), physical capital, research and development, and energy in the Iranian economy. Using the input-output table, the HOV hypothesis was examined by relating the relative abundance and scarcity of factors to the factor content of trade . The validation test was conducted using micro data for 78 activity sectors in agriculture, industry and services using the 2011 and 2016 input-output tables in the Iranian economy. The results show for Iran's economy in 2011 and 2016 that the factor content of trade was negative in 34.61% of activities (27 sectors) and the factors were imported. In 60.25% of the activities (47 sections), it was positive and had a relative surplus of factors, so the factors were exported. In each of the years studied, in 4 subsectors of the services sector, there was no factor trade. In addition, the results show that in 2011 the greatest influence on the production process was from unskilled labor and physical capital, while in 2016 physical capital and spending on research and development predominated.
JEL Classification: F0, F14, F20.

Exploring effects of the main determinants of exchange rate pass through is crucial for the adoption of various economic policies, including currency and trade policies. The exchange rate regime of countries is the source of exchange rate and price changes and is substantial in the implementation of foreign exchange policies. Among the various factors affecting exchange rate pass through, an exchange rate regime has received less attention in empirical studies. Accordingly, the present paper seeks to find out how the exchange rate pass through, which is proxied as the import price, is affected by different exchange rate regimes. To answer the question, we have used the propensity score matching approach, which is considered as a non-parametric method, to investigate the effect of an exchange rate regime on the exchange rate pass through, while other effective factors are controlled. To this purpose, we have used data of 118 developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in 2019. To evaluate the marginal effect of the exchange rate regime on exchange rate pass through, we have modeled the exchange rate pass through by including other match variables such as the nominal exchange rate, marginal cost of exporters, real GDP growth, trade openness, liquidity growth and inflation. The empirical results showed that the exchange rate pass through has responded significantly to the selection of an appropriate exchange rate regime, so that the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime reduces the degree of exchange rate pass among the counties wherever implemented.